Probability Calculator & Simulator / Tool
This is a calculator for "the probability of hitting m times or more after n trials of probability p" and a simulator that "keeps trying until it hits m times" with the set probability.
Settings & Calculate
Probability
(0.01–100%)
Trial
(1–10000)
times
Hiting
(1–100)
times
Probability of hitting 1 times or more
after 100 trials of probability 1%
after 100 trials of probability 1%
≈ 63.4%
Simulation
A simulation of "keeps trying until probability of 1% hits 1 times" is performed on 100 people.
Challenger | Result |
---|---|
1th person | 0times |
2th person | 0times |
3th person | 0times |
4th person | 0times |
5th person | 0times |
6th person | 0times |
7th person | 0times |
8th person | 0times |
9th person | 0times |
10th person | 0times |
11th person | 0times |
12th person | 0times |
13th person | 0times |
14th person | 0times |
15th person | 0times |
16th person | 0times |
17th person | 0times |
18th person | 0times |
19th person | 0times |
20th person | 0times |
21th person | 0times |
22th person | 0times |
23th person | 0times |
24th person | 0times |
25th person | 0times |
26th person | 0times |
27th person | 0times |
28th person | 0times |
29th person | 0times |
30th person | 0times |
31th person | 0times |
32th person | 0times |
33th person | 0times |
34th person | 0times |
35th person | 0times |
36th person | 0times |
37th person | 0times |
38th person | 0times |
39th person | 0times |
40th person | 0times |
41th person | 0times |
42th person | 0times |
43th person | 0times |
44th person | 0times |
45th person | 0times |
46th person | 0times |
47th person | 0times |
48th person | 0times |
49th person | 0times |
50th person | 0times |
51th person | 0times |
52th person | 0times |
53th person | 0times |
54th person | 0times |
55th person | 0times |
56th person | 0times |
57th person | 0times |
58th person | 0times |
59th person | 0times |
60th person | 0times |
61th person | 0times |
62th person | 0times |
63th person | 0times |
64th person | 0times |
65th person | 0times |
66th person | 0times |
67th person | 0times |
68th person | 0times |
69th person | 0times |
70th person | 0times |
71th person | 0times |
72th person | 0times |
73th person | 0times |
74th person | 0times |
75th person | 0times |
76th person | 0times |
77th person | 0times |
78th person | 0times |
79th person | 0times |
80th person | 0times |
81th person | 0times |
82th person | 0times |
83th person | 0times |
84th person | 0times |
85th person | 0times |
86th person | 0times |
87th person | 0times |
88th person | 0times |
89th person | 0times |
90th person | 0times |
91th person | 0times |
92th person | 0times |
93th person | 0times |
94th person | 0times |
95th person | 0times |
96th person | 0times |
97th person | 0times |
98th person | 0times |
99th person | 0times |
100th person | 0times |
Within 100
0 people
Avg
0 times
Min
0 times
Max
0 times
How to use this tool
- Enter the “Probability (percentage or fraction)”, “Trial”, and “Hiting”, and the calculation results will be displayed automatically.
- Probability calculation results are rounded to the third decimal place.
Calculation of the probability of hitting probability p more than once in n tries
Probability of hitting more than once = 100% - Probability of not hitting once
e.g. Probability 1%, 1 try, probability of hitting at least 1.
-> About 1 in 100 hit.
e.g. Probability 1%, 100 try, probability of hitting at least 1.
-> About 2 in 3 hit.
Calculation of the probability of hitting a probability p more than m times in n tries
If the number of times you want to hit is more than two, the calculation becomes more difficult.
- Probability of hitting more than once = 100% - Probability of not hitting all - Probability of hitting only once
- Probability of hitting 3 or more times = 100% - Probability of not hitting all - Probability of hitting only once - Probability of hitting only twice
The “probability of hitting only x times” can be calculated using the following formula.
nCx is the number of combinations to choose x out of n different ones.
e.g. Probability 1%, 1 try, probability of hitting 2 or more times
Probability of not hitting once:
Probability of hitting only once:
Probability of hitting two or more times: