%
/
Probability of hitting by executing times
63.4%
About 37 in 100 not hit.
Simulate "do until hit" for 100 people.
ChallengerFirst hit
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Avg: 0

Probability Simulator

This is a tool that simulates "do it until it hits" for 100 people and gives a sense of probability to the body. You can feel that "1% means that if you try 100 times, you will win once" is a misunderstanding.

  • This site does not take any responsibility even if your heart breaks.

1% does not mean that you will win if you do it 100 times. Don’t suspect a bug. I made a simulator that forces me to understand the probabilities.

When you get the illusion that “1% means that if you try 100 times, you will win once”, the inside of your head is as shown in the figure below.

Wrong way of thinking about probability

However, correct is the figure below.

The right way of thinking about probability

It is easy to understand if you calculate the expected value.

The probability of hitting is 1%.
-> The probability of hitting by pulling 100 times is about 63.4%.
-> If you pull 100 times, you will hitt about 2 out of 3 people.

If you think this way, your emotions will be easy to understand. The calculation method is to first calculate the “probability of not hit everything” and subtract it from 100%.

Probability of hitting more than once = 100% - probability of not hit everything

e.g. 1% lottery, Challenge 1 times, Probability of hitting more than once
100% - 99% = 1%
-> About 1 in 100 people hits.

e.g. 1% lottery, Challenge 2 times, Probability of hitting more than once
100% - 99% x 99% = 100% - 98.01% = 1.99%
(99% x 99% = 0.99 x 0.99 = 0.9801)
-> About 1 in 50 people hits.

e.g. 1% lottery, Challenge 100 times, Probability of hitting more than once
100% - 99%100 = 100% - about 36.6% = about 63.4%
-> About 2 in 3 people hits.

With this simulator, you can experience about this. Probability is counterintuitive. Intuition is too much to expect.

About Me

Hirota Yano / Programmer
Born in 1988, based in Japan

Languages

日本語 / English